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Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2020: Threats, Opportunities, Predictions | Q&A With Top eCommerce Experts

a 20-minute read

Black Friday and Cyber Monday are two especially significant eCommerce events. Each year PPC experts, marketing managers, sales teams, conversion optimization consultants, data analysts, designers, SEO and all other digital marketing experts join their strengths to come up with something never seen before. Something that will grab the attention of as many new visitors as possible, reward loyal customers, beat competitors. It’s an eCommerce sales race of the year! 

But the year 2020 changed everything. The whole world got forced to adjust its usual course to the rules dictated by the COVID19 pandemic. We started paying even closer attention to the analytics and uprising new trends. But even with all data analyzing we’re left with numerous questions, which is quite expected since we’re all facing such situation for the very first time. 

This is why we’ve asked some of the top eCommerce experts with different backgrounds for their opinions and predictions for the upcoming BFCM. We’ve asked all participants the same set of questions, and they were kind enough to share their thoughts to help you better prepare for the big e-comm weekend. 

Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman at Ogilvy UK

Núbia Mota, Regional Head of Field Marketing & Business Development at Magento, an Adobe company

Ben Kazinik, Content Director at Mayple

Melania Zilic, Marketing Manager at Summa Solutions

Djordje Petrovic, App Growth Specialist at Google

Luciana Tittarelli, Marketing & eCommerce Manager at Grupo TIJE Travel

Nebojša Knežević, Head of Product and Solutions at Hunch

Jordan Parkes, Director of Search at OneClick Marketing

Raphaëlle Sirhan, Co-Founder and COO at ConversionAdvocates

Sina Fak, Founder and CEO at ConversionAdvocates

Bradley Rodé, Data Scientist at ConversionAdvocates


All answers represent personal opinions and predictions of the participants and not those of the companies they work for.


Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman at Ogilvy, Q&A with ConversionAdvocates on the topic of opportunities, threats, predictions for Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2020

Having in mind all consequences (familiar to you) that the COVID19 pandemic had so far on the e-commerce:

What do you see as the biggest threat for the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales?

I have a weird theory that there is still a behavioural ceiling to online commerce: quite simply, whereas online retailers have very effectively solved the problem of selling one thing to ten people, they are not yet quite as good at selling ten things to one person. There is a limit to how many outstanding online orders we can cope with simultaneously before our lives turn into a logistical and administrative nightmare. For these reasons, physical shops still enjoy an edge in benefitting from seasonal sales. In addition, there is still uncertainty about Christmas, and many people are obviously suffering from significant financial uncertainty, which will dent the kind of discretionary purchases which sales tend to encourage.

What do you see as the biggest opportunity for the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales?

On a more positive note, it is worth remembering that the whole country has had a crash course in online shopping, that many people have a logical aversion to crowded spaces – and are also more likely to be at home during the week to take delivery of high-value online purchases. Some people, of course, are financially better off as a result of COVID through falling commuting costs. And, as China shows, there is the phenomenon of “revenge shopping” where people are eager to make up for the lost time.

Compared to the previous years’ trends, what is your prediction for this, probably the most important set of sales in the e-comm world in 2020? Will it be a success, a complete failure, or something third? 

The average effect of COVID fails to capture the extreme variation of individual experience – psychologically and financially. I would predict that online retailers will declare a mild success overall, but with extreme cross-category variations. Fashion will be particularly mixed.


Nubia Mota, Regional Head of Field Marketing & Business Development at Magento an Adobe company, Q&A with ConversionAdvocates on the topic of opportunities, threats, predictions for Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2020

Having in mind all consequences (familiar to you) that the COVID19 pandemic had so far on the e-commerce:

What do you see as the biggest threat for the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales?

Because of the habits of preventing the covid-19 pandemic, I believe this will be the most digital Black Friday ever, which brings us challenges and opportunities at the same time.

Firstly, many industries don’t have supplies for manufacturing or suffer from product shortage. Some sectors will be affected by the lack of products due to the period factories were closed, a demand that may even raise inflation rates in several industries.

Something else to consider regards the reduced hours of trade, which can naturally impact the number of sales, in addition to the delivery time, as many operations have seen in E-commerce the key to keep running and benefit from the omnichannel structure to provide BOPIS (buy online pick up in store).

What do you see as the biggest opportunity for the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales?

Surely E-commerce will be the highlight of this Black Friday. According to Ebit/Nielsen, the Brazilian E-commerce earned 47% more during the first six months of this year compared to the previous semester. In addition, according to the industry association (ABComm), since the beginning of the quarantine more than 100,000 stores have joined internet sales, and the highlighted sectors are fashion, food and services, allowing even testing and innovations in segments still little explored in E-commerce.

Compared to the previous years’ trends, what is your prediction for this, probably the most important set of sales in the e-comm world in 2020? Will it be a success, a complete failure, or something third? 

I see the sales for the end of this year with great optimism, mainly driven by E-commerce, as I mentioned before.

When we look at the numbers of this year’s key E-commerce sales dates, all achieved better-than-expected results. For comparison, on Valentine’s Day in Brazil – celebrated in June -, E-commerce sales grew 112,8% compared to the same period last year, according to Compre&Confie.

And despite the unfortunate growth in unemployment rates in Brazil, there is also a repressed demand of people who have been able to save during this long quarantine that we are living in. Therefore, I believe that there are many consumers more prepared than ever to make good purchases, taking advantage of the promotions and benefits of Black Friday and also Christmas.


Ben Kazinik, Content Director at Mayple, Q&A with ConversionAdvocates on the topic of opportunities, threats, predictions for Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2020

Having in mind all consequences (familiar to you) that the COVID19 pandemic had so far on the e-commerce:

What do you see as the biggest threat for the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales?

I think that there are two challenges for eCommerce sellers this year with BFCM. First, since eCom sales have gone way up this year because of COVID, buyers have already bought a lot of what they would usually buy much earlier in the year. So sellers would have to offer even bigger and more exclusive discounts than usual. The second challenge is that there are a lot of products and services that aren’t so popular this year. For example, events and group activities are extremely limited, and so is travel. Sellers will have to tie their product and service to a permitted activity and to describe how one could best use it if they are on quarantine.

What do you see as the biggest opportunity for the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales?

The opportunity here is HUGE. Brands have to get their marketing strategy just right and maximize on as many channels and marketplaces as they possibly can. That means sellers have to have a presence on Amazon, eBay, Target+, Wayfair, and others. All of these marketplaces are going to see a huge spike in sales this year so jump on the wagon and you will be successful.

Compared to the previous years’ trends, what is your prediction for this, probably the most important set of sales in the e-comm world in 2020? Will it be a success, a complete failure, or something third?

I think that sales should be much greater this year because so many more people are shopping online. I don’t think it’s going to be as large of an increase as we saw in April/May when the virus just hit, but it should still be a substantial increase compared to shopping seasons in previous years. I’m excited to see what happens! 


Melania Zilic, Marketing Manager at Summa Solutions, Q&A with ConversionAdvocates on the topic of opportunities, threats, predictions for Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2020

Having in mind all consequences (familiar to you) that the COVID19 pandemic had so far on the e-commerce:

What do you see as the biggest threat for the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales?

Each massive event is a new opportunity to increase sales and offer the best experience to effective and potential customers. With Cyber ​​Monday on the agenda and a pandemic framework, which directs brands and consumers to the online channel, expectations are higher and today more than ever we must be well-prepared.

Early this year, the Hot Sale week left great lessons in Argentina. After postponing the date of this massive event, more than 3.50 million purchase orders and 6.2 million items sold were registered.

With this background there are many expectations in the results that Cyber ​​Monday can offer, however, there are also some challenges to close such a different and special year.

Among the points to be strengthened and considered are operational and context factors.

In a pandemic framework, digital commerce and logistics have been fundamental areas to keep businesses active and ensure supply to the population. In this sense, new players have entered the market and beyond having contributed improvements in the commercialization and distribution of products, there are still aspects to improve: delivery times, geolocation of shipments, user experience, costs, etc.

Logistics and supply are naturally subject to supply, availability, and stock management. The brands have not been able to produce normally, which impacted on some shortages and / or products that suffered delays in their delivery. For Cyber ​​Monday, it will be crucial to be able to consider current conditions and move forward with greater agility and transparency in the communication of products, inventory, and conditions offered to the users in general and final customers in particular. 

Another of the most relevant sensitive points involves computer security and data protection. Digital acceleration has broadened the map of consumers and brands and along with it, there are still some precautions to take to avoid setbacks.

Finally, the socioeconomic conditions of Argentina and the region place the consumer in a context of crisis and care regarding their finances and this can naturally affect the level of sales.

What do you see as the biggest opportunity for the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales?

The Covid-19 has accelerated the growth expected for the next 5 years in 6 months, already achieving participation of the digital channel greater than 30% in some areas.

It is estimated that at least 11 million people in Latin America will make their first e-commerce purchase in 2020. This represents a great opportunity but at the same time a great responsibility to live up to customer expectations. Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday are two great moments for consumption, they underpin the Christmas and end of the year sales and give a boost for the cycle to come.

For these dates, and taking into account the conditions and opportunities that occurred from the pandemic and lockdowns, there are items that find the starting point for their reactivation (eg trips, school supplies, health, etc.). In addition to this, those that have already gone through the first semester focused on digitization, strengthen their proposals, and arrive in excellent condition to capitalize on e-days. There are numerous brands and companies that have known how to evolve in customer experience, omnichannel, live commerce, shoppable content, and social networks, maximizing each channel, each tool, and generating trends and quality practices.

Compared to the previous years’ trends, what is your prediction for this, probably the most important set of sales in the e-comm world in 2020? Will it be a success, a complete failure, or something third?

First and foremost, it will be fundamental to align and capitalize on all the learnings and challenges of this 2020 with atypical seasonings.

Companies that want to be successful in this new digital age will have to train and professionalize. eCommerce is no longer “the online store” to be a central part of the strategy of companies.

In a survey conducted by PwC Argentina, more than half of Retail and Mass Consumption companies believe that the main source of innovation in the sector will be related to the creation of mixed business models between physical stores and digital channels.

This is a personal opinion, but I don’t understand digital commerce as a replacement for the physical experience, but an enhancer of it.  The customer seeks convenience, a pleasant experience, and personalized treatment, regardless of the channel through which they interact. 

When decision-making is carried out from this perspective, not only in massive events but in the entire digital transformation process, technology is no longer the focus, but rather is understood as an enabler of these changes.


Djordje Petrovic, App Growth Specialist (Retail & Travel), LCS UKI at Google, Q&A with ConversionAdvocates on the topic of opportunities, threats, predictions for Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2020

Having in mind all consequences (familiar to you) that the COVID19 pandemic had so far on the e-commerce:

What do you see as the biggest threat for the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales?

The economic impact of Covid-19 will likely be felt through reduced disposable household income. Tighter budgets will certainly affect the way consumers will be making their decisions on spending, hence brands will have to really amp up value offering of their products & clearly communicate that value. For example, an indicator might be that in June, searches for “best affordable” had grown globally by over 60% year over year.

The overwhelming online demand surge during the first wave of the lockdowns during the first half of this year meant for many eComm retailers that their supply chain & distribution logistics were challenged. The responses, and their success, varied. Even the eComm juggernauts with exceptional infrastructure built for scale had to throttle the delivery time for some of their high in-demand yet non-essential products in favour of the essential ones. Other, smaller or even medium retailers had to figure out ways to limit usage of its platforms due to technical capacity constraints, or simply limit the number of orders due inability to fulfil all of them. A brand in the grocery space in the UK had to temporarily take down their app from the store to stop new users from downloading to avoid one-star reviews due to capacity issues. Another, well known, brand in the fashion space had their website closed at first amid concerns about the safety of staff in its warehouses, then after reopening a month later had to close it again, albeit temporarily, only two hours after the reopening due to reaching the orders cap.

Therefore, besides the potential economic impact of Covid-19, the biggest risk to individual retailers, in my view, would be to not apply learnings from the challenging period earlier this year in dealing with their logistical or technical bottlenecks.

What do you see as the biggest opportunity for the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales?

Three components, in my view, form “the big opportunity” for the Black Friday/Cyber Monday: earlier start, lipstick effect & mCommerce expansion.

Firstly, remembering product availability issues and delivery delays, consumers will likely start researching & completing their holiday shopping much earlier this year as they want to avoid products running out of stock. The opportunity there is for retailers to be present & offer good value earlier, rather than condensing everything in the few days around Black Friday/Cyber Monday. Spreading out “the peak” in demand will also provide some relief on both supply & distribution logistics. We might be in for a “month-long Cyber Monday

Secondly, while overall disposable income might be limited compared to last year the spending options have been limited as well, and in this context, the power of “lipstick effect” is not to be underestimated.
Thirdly, shopping apps have seen a big rise in downloads & usage in 2020, particularly in some categories. According to eMarketer, this will be the first time retail mCommerce sales will make up more than half of total UK retail eCommerce sales. They suggest that by 2024, 1 in every 5 retail overall transactions there will be mCommerce. While the UK is one of the most digitally mature markets, the trend will likely follow elsewhere. This big opportunity will be capitalized by the retailers who have an app and invest into improving it’s UX & checkout flows in particular. Retailers without an app should focus on mSite speed & optimizing checkouts for the short term ahead of Black Friday while putting apps on the road map for the long term.

Compared to the previous years’ trends, what is your prediction for this, probably the most important set of sales in the e-comm world in 2020? Will it be a success, a complete failure, or something third?

Depends on your definition of success. That said, I’m optimistic that from an eComm perspective it will be bigger than last year due to many tailwinds in the online space.

*Disclaimer: opinions expressed above are my personal views and are not explicitly or implicitly endorsed by my employer


Luciana Tittarelli, Q&A with ConversionAdvocates on the topic of opportunities, threats, predictions for Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2020

Having in mind all consequences (familiar to you) that the COVID19 pandemic had so far on the e-commerce:

What do you see as the biggest threat for the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales?

Speaking of travel I think that it is a combination of factors that represents the biggest threat:

  • Economic situation
  • Coronavirus 
  • Tourism situation

This generates a strong impact on travellers.

Also, the Aerospace industry is breaking and Tourism Agencies are intermediaries. Additionally, Argentina is not open for tourists at the moment. This triggered freezing in sales. Users only search for trips but they don’t buy them.

In spite of this, I think Cyber Monday and Black Friday will be the two most relevant moments in 2020.

What do you see as the biggest opportunity for the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales?

Generally speaking, users tend to spend a lot of money on these dates. 

The biggest opportunity will be:

  • Pricing of services is cheaper than in other years. Flights especially.
  • The “flexible flight” will be the star! Users can buy tickets and then can change them for another future date. 
  • Financing
  • All industries are working to offer the best opportunities to users on this date.

TIJE Travel offers travel assistance with COVID-19 coverage.

Compared to the previous years’ trends, what is your prediction for this, probably the most important set of sales in the e-comm world in 2020? Will it be a success, a complete failure, or something third?

I feel hopeful because travellers show interest, they are looking for deals. We are working to give them the best experience, discounts and offers for their holidays on Cyber Monday and Black Friday.

Even though the sales will be lower than in previous years, I think this eCommerce event will trigger the trips again.

TIJE Travel waits 18% less than previous Cyber Monday but 30% more than previous Hot Sale (July 2020).


Nebojsa Knezevic, Head of Product and Solutions at Hunch, Q&A with ConversionAdvocates on the topic of opportunities, threats, predictions for Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2020

Having in mind all consequences (familiar to you) that the COVID19 pandemic had so far on the e-commerce:

What do you see as the biggest threat for the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales?

Not a threat, but probably the biggest challenge will be how to stand out and stay relevant online. 

With lockdown, all but stopping in its tracks, the usual massive store turnout on Black Friday big stores will be moving into online space.

 It will be a challenge to stay on top of the users’ minds. 

You will need an outstanding campaign and creative strategy not to be blown out of the water by the sheer volume of budgets big chains will spend online. Personalization and smart targeting will be the key, but it remains to be seen who is agile enough for this.

What do you see as the biggest opportunity for the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales?

The most significant opportunity is all of us sitting at home waiting for that deal. 

Many potential customers spent less this year, there was less travel, less going out, and generally fewer opportunities to spend money.

This makes for a huge opportunity to get users to buy something they wanted but didn’t want to break the bank on. 

As long as my preferred model of glasses or a watch I’ve wanted to buy makes its way to me (with a fair offer), I think it will be an easy sell. 

But getting through all BFCM noise will be more challenging.

Compared to the previous years’ trends, what is your prediction for this, probably the most important set of sales in the e-comm world in 2020? Will it be a success, a complete failure, or something third? 

On average, it’s going to be the same. 

Total sales volume will closely match last year, but keep in mind that a massive number of transactions will move online. This means that large in-store brands will have to find their voice in performance marketing, and online first brands will face fierce competition with massive budgets.  

To help advertisers stand out and beat competition during the biggest and busiest five days of the year, we at Hunch prepared a massive jam of value inside the BFCM Playbook to dominate on Paid Social. You have only one attempt in a year. Don’t mess it up. 


Jordan Parkes, Director of Search at OneClick Marketing, Q&A with ConversionAdvocates on the topic of opportunities, threats, predictions for Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2020

Having in mind all consequences (familiar to you) that the COVID19 pandemic had so far on the e-commerce:

What do you see as the biggest threat for the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales?

I don’t think COVID restrictions are going to affect online sales by any means. All the numbers are indicating that sales are increasing by 30% or more. The only threat I see is heavy-weights like Amazon hogging most of the space. If your email/customer retention strategy is not in place you will definitely risk being left behind.

What do you see as the biggest opportunity for the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales?

Without a doubt this year is going to be a huge push for people moving away from brick and mortar and into online sales. Now is the time to capitalize on a share of the market that normally isn’t present.

Compared to the previous years’ trends, what is your prediction for this, probably the most important set of sales in the e-comm world in 2020? Will it be a success, a complete failure, or something third?

I predict online will be a blockbuster year while the brick and mortar section is going to be decimated this season. A percentage of this year’s sales will carry on next year further damaging storefront business regardless if we end the pandemic or not as customers get used to ordering more online.


Raphaelle Sirhan, Co-Founder and COO at ConversionAdvocates, Q&A with ConversionAdvocates on the topic of opportunities, threats, predictions for Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2020

Having in mind all consequences (familiar to you) that the COVID19 pandemic had so far on the e-commerce:

What do you see as the biggest threat for the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales?

I see different challenges. First of all, I think that the market will be saturated, and companies will have to be very competitive and creative to be seen out there. It will be harder for smaller players to get the visibility that they need in order to reach their ROI against the big players like Amazon and Wayfair for example.

Also, some type of products and services won’t be able to benefit from this year’s Black Friday and Cyber Monday. I’m thinking about gyms that are often promoting a referral program like “Refer a friend,” that won’t be very appealing to their audience at the moment in certain countries. The travel industry certainly won’t have it easy as well as artists and companies in the entertainment industry.

What do you see as the biggest opportunity for the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales?

We see more online shoppers than ever. A lot of people who preferred to buy in person are now buying online because of the COVID19 pandemic. I also feel like the shopping behavior is changing as people are clicking “buy now” faster mostly because they are bored from spending more time at home.

Buying online is now a distraction from what is happening and buying online is an activity. New brands will benefit from having their products available on Amazon or other marketplace and get known by their audience.

Compared to the previous years’ trends, what is your prediction for this, probably the most important set of sales in the e-comm world in 2020? Will it be a success, a complete failure, or something third?

I think it will be a success for the e-comm world. Most people are working from home and will be ready to buy. The users are literally in front of their computer at all times, and there are a lot of new eCommerce stores entering the market.

I feel like a lot of people saved money during the lockdown and that they will spend on their favorite brands or try something new during Black Friday and Cyber Monday.


Sina Fak, Founder and CEO at ConversionAdvocates, Q&A with ConversionAdvocates on the topic of opportunities, threats, predictions for Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2020

Having in mind all consequences (familiar to you) that the COVID19 pandemic had so far on the e-commerce:

What do you see as the biggest threat for the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales?

Firstly, the pandemic has introduced a brand new demographic of shopper online. The needs, wants, and shopping behaviours of this new demographic are unique and very different than historical customers. It will be important for companies to pay close attention, research and evaluate who their audience segments are to ensure they communicate with them effectively. 

Secondly, the needs and preferences of existing online buyers have changed, as well. People are looking for different things since their lifestyles have fundamentally changed since the pandemic. It’s important for companies to uncover what these shifts are relative to their industry and ensure their product and service offerings are aligned to the new demand. 

Thirdly, there has been an exponential increase in competition online with new and existing companies scrambling to tap into the new demand of eCommerce and online shopping. This has led to new companies being created, but also existing companies repositioning themselves and exploring new verticals. This saturation in the market will definitely impact the amount of attention eCommerce brands will be competing for and also lead to increased cost of acquiring that attention through advertising.

Finally, from simply a practical level, supply chains are at risk. For many of our customers at ConversionAdvocates, keeping inventory up with demand has been a challenge. Shipping and delivery times from foreign manufacturers has increased dramatically and it will be important for brands to effectively manage budgets, inventories, and customer expectations when it comes to what products are available and when they can expect them to be delivered.

What do you see as the biggest opportunity for the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales?

There are 2 big opportunity I see for this upcoming BFCM. 

Firstly, eCommerce brands have an amazing opportunity to gather new data and insights about customer demographics, shopping behviours, and customer acquisition strategies. For those who set things up properly, the data and insights gathered during BFCM can lay the foundation for future growth opportunities, product lines, and communications strategies. 

Secondly, there is an opportunity for forward-thinking brands to establish new long-term relationships with customers. BFCM lasts a weekend. But the relationship with the customer can last much longer. I think it is important for companies to understand the lifetime value of their customers and coordinate their marketing strategies, budgets, and campaign performance objectives, accordingly. It’s a question of short-term goals and long-term vision.

Compared to the previous years’ trends, what is your prediction for this, probably the most important set of sales in the e-comm world in 2020? Will it be a success, a complete failure, or something third?

Historically, BFCM sales have increased every single year and I think this BFCM will be the biggest year ever for the eCommerce and online shopping industry, as a whole. That said, I think that with the increase in competition and the significant shifts in consumer needs and preference, revenues will spread out through more players and offers, which will dilute the overall impact of increased demand online for any individual company.


Bradley Rode, Data Scientist at ConversionAdvocates, Q&A with ConversionAdvocates on the topic of opportunities, threats, predictions for Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2020

Having in mind all consequences (familiar to you) that the COVID19 pandemic had so far on the e-commerce:

What do you see as the biggest threat for the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales?

Given the COVID19 situation, a major threat that I see is the potential for reduced holiday gatherings this year.  The joy of gift-giving comes from seeing others in person and many people normally start their holiday shopping on Black Friday.  This year, I would expect reduced family gatherings, fewer get-togethers with friends, little to no company holiday parties, and therefore fewer incentives to buy gifts for those that we will not see.

What do you see as the biggest opportunity for the Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales?

A big opportunity will be capturing online audiences that love the thrill of the hunt of the Black Friday experience.  This can include thinking of creative ways to recreate the experience of waiting outside a store to get the best deals, but now in eCommerce, where Black Friday shopping will mostly take place.  This could be done with countdown timers, waiting rooms, limited coupon codes, or other creative ways to recapture that feeling of being one of the first people to grab an exclusive deal.

Compared to the previous years’ trends, what is your prediction for this, probably the most important set of sales in the e-comm world in 2020?  Will it be a success, a complete failure, or something third?

I think this year has the potential to be disappointing compared to previous years overall.  Although there has been a big boost in online sales, much has gone towards purchases of everyday items like groceries and household goods.  With unemployment rates still high, budgets for discretionary spending on Black Friday may not be as robust as years prior.

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